An Analysis of the President's Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 1992 - CBO

Washington, D.C: Congress of the United States, Congressional Budget Office, 1991. First Edition. Softcover; First Printing.

March 1991 edition. All Authors / Contributors:CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE (U S CONGRESS) WASHINGTON DC; Van de Water, Paul N.; Arnold, Robert W.; Marcuss, Rosemary D.; Miller, Michael A.; Seagrave, Charles E.; Sunshine, Robert A.; Ruffing, Kathy. Subjects; Economics and Cost Analysis. Government and Political Science. *FEDERAL BUDGETS ; 4to - 11" to 13" tall; 204 pages; Notes: "Prepared at the request of the Senate Committee on Appropriations"--Cover. "March 1991"--Cover. "The report discusses the President's policies in terms of changes from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) baseline budget projections for 1992 through 1996. It provides estimates of the budgetary impact of the Administration's proposals using CBO's economic and technical estimating methods"--P. iii. Description: x, 204 p. : ill. ; 28 cm. Abstract:The Bush Administration's 1992 budget is largely shaped by last year's budget summit agreement, as incorporated in the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990. Nonetheless, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the budget violates some of the requirements of the new law. Specifically, the budget breaches the limits on discretiona ry spending in 1992 as well as in the following three years. CBO also estimates that the Administration's proposed changes in mandatory spending and revenues would increase the deficit in 1994 and 1995, thus violating the pay-as-you-go discipline for those years, if no further actions were taken before 1994. For 1992 and 1993, the Administrati on's mandatory spending and receipt proposals would slightly reduce the deficit. Both CBO and the Administration estimate that the total federal deficit, including Social Security and the Postal Service, will top $300 billion in 1991. The Administration projects that its policies will achieve a near balance in the total budget by 1995 and a small surplus in 1996. CBO's economic and technical estimating assumptions are less optimistic than those of the Administration. Even so, CBO projects that by 1995 the total federal deficit under Administration policies will fall below $100 billion for the first time in 15 years. While the total deficit has been the exclusive focus of attention in the past, two other deficit measures are now likely to be considered as well. One is the deficit excluding deposit insurance--the best simple measure of the government's effect on the economy. Federal spending to close or subsidize the sale of insolvent savings and loan institutions and banks will amount to roughly $100 billion in both 1991 and 1992, slow sharply in 1993 and 1994, and turn negative in 1995 and 1996, when the proceeds from asset sales will exceed the costs of closing failed institutions.